UPDATE: China has accused the United States of turning Taiwan into a powder keg and ammunition depot. While the U.S. is all set to place a huge cost on China for any possible reunification with Taiwan, it is slowly losing its "position of strength" to China elsewhere in the Indo-Pacific region.
Malaysia remains consistent in its stand on protecting its sovereignty, rights and interests in the exclusive economic zones in South China Sea, says Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim. “In light of this, it bears stressing that Malaysia’s security lies ‘in’ and ‘with’ the region and not ‘from’ the region.
Japan, Australia, India and the United States are holding the Malabar navy exercise off the coast of Sydney, Australia. This is the first time the war games previously held in the Indian Ocean have taken place in Australia.
AUKUS has focused on its first pillar, which may see Australia join the ‘nuclear sub club,’ but less attention has been devoted to the information-sharing, industry ties and advanced technologies that make up AUKUS Pillar 2.
President Biden’s provision of $345 million of military aid to Taiwan using drawdown authority represents a major change in U.S. practice for providing arms and implies a closer military relationship. Previously all weapons were provided through sales, not through a drawdown of U.S. stockpiles.
China as Indo-Pacific Security Guarantor
By Faisal Ahmed and Alexandre Lambert (amended)
The most recent White House announcement of $345 million in military aid to Taiwan has infuriated China. China has accused the United States of turning Taiwan into a powder keg and ammunition depot. While the U.S. is all set to place a huge cost on China for any possible reunification with Taiwan, it is slowly losing its "position of strength" to China elsewhere in the Indo-Pacific region. In fact, in recent times, China seems to have adopted a posture in positioning itself as ― what we call ― a "guarantor of geostrategic security solutions (G2S2)" power in the Indo-Pacific. This has, increasingly, made a dent in the ability of the U.S. to remain a net security solutions provider in the region. And there are reasons to believe this is the case.
First, in March this year, China brokered a Saudi-Iran reconciliation, thus bringing the West Asian rivals diplomatically closer. However, as global geopolitics unfolded in the post-pandemic era, Saudi Arabia was adequately convinced that the U.S. could not be trusted in providing regional security solutions in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia now intends to secure its strategic vulnerabilities vis-a-vis Iran by leveraging Beijing's favorable relations with Tehran, which have been reinforced by Iran acceding to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization-SCO this year.
Second, in February this year, China called for a political settlement of the Ukraine Crisis and recommended a 12-point peace position paper. Primarily, it called upon the U.S. to abandon its Cold War mentality, and asserted that expansion of military blocs cannot guarantee regional security in Europe. China also called for ensuring stability in supply chains, and putting an end to unilateral sanctions. It also supported the Black Sea Grain Initiative for ensuring food security.
Third, China proposed a Global Security Initiative (GSI) in April 2022 aimed at upholding the principle of indivisible security. This year in February, it also presented a concept paper for its implementation that focused on both traditional and non-traditional security aspects. The paper also called for a United Nations-backed security governance that could potentially lead to post-war reconstruction efforts. Moreover, it succinctly called for a nuclear non-proliferation regime in Iran, Korean peninsula denuclearization and strengthening the Middle East security architecture ― all of which have been witnessing a failure of American efforts.
Fourth, in 2022, China entered into a security agreement with the Solomon Islands ― a small island in the South Pacific - that called for strengthening the island nation's national security and police cooperation between China and the Solomon Islands. Most of the Pacific island countries including Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu and others are signatories to the BRI, and rely on Chinese investments, development aid and concessional loans.
Fifth, China is no stranger to the Indian Ocean islands. It has developed an overseas military base in Djibouti, and is undertaking anti-piracy exercises. India's ambitious security initiatives in the Indian Ocean have not received strong support from the U.S., which claims to work with its allies like India to strengthen Indo-Pacific security architecture, but seems to struggle to find a suitable regional role for itself.
Importantly, regional security initiatives like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) have already been diluted by the U.S. to include several non-traditional security issues e.g. climate change etc. Also, the U.S. has shown an unsolicited urgency in co-opting the U.K. and Australia to form a new security alliance called AUKUS (Australia-U.K.-U.S.). As the Sino-U.S. rivalry takes its own course amid mutual counter-narratives, without doubt, many smaller economies in the Indo-Pacific may be compelled to rely on China as their new G2S2 power.
Read more here.
Malaysia secure in South China Sea
By Syed Umar Ariff (amended)
KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia remains consistent in its stand on protecting its sovereignty, rights and interests in the exclusive economic zones in South China Sea, says Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.
He said Malaysia would persevere in the face of “all legitimate challenges and claims”.
“In light of this, it bears stressing that Malaysia’s security lies ‘in’ and ‘with’ the region and not ‘from’ the region.
“We leverage on our geographical location as both a land and maritime country straddling the most important trade routes and economic position as a key part of various global supply chains to promote regional security,” he said in his keynote address at the 36th Asia-Pacific Roundtable here yesterday.
Anwar said Malaysia must continue to ride on its good relations with both China and the United States to promote a stronger rules-and-norms-based order.
“This order is not based on might or the tendency to ignore the very rules and norms one preaches about when it is inconvenient. That is unconducive and hypocritical.
“What’s good for the goose must be good for the gander. So, it must be an order based on fairness, respect and understanding, compassion and international law,” he added.
“In our estimation, both China and the United States have affirmed their commitment to it. It must go beyond multilateral trade dealings to the realm of a practical geostrategic architecture.
“Malaysia will do our part to promote this consensus,” he added.
Anwar said it was imperative for such a consensus on global security to take into account the views of South-East Asia.
“Accordingly, Malaysia will engage proactively and independently with various initiatives by regional powers and stakeholders, in both the Asia and Indo-Pacific. We do so with a clear view of our national interest and priorities, which is deeply tied to the upkeep of inclusive regional architectures,” he said.
Speaking on the impact of the intensifying rivalry between the United States and China on South-East Asia, Anwar said it had affected the region’s long-standing architecture and norms.
“Under the weight of such stresses, there is a drastic need to revitalise not just cooperation among nation states but greater inclusivity and equity.
“There seems to be no urgency to address this. Some have spoken of South-East Asia being a key part of the chessboard in the new ‘Great Game’ waged between Beijing and Washington, as the latter once did against Moscow.
“It would be a great loss for the entire region if this unfettered rivalry affects all that have been painstakingly achieved by existing and consequential Asean-led multilateral mechanisms,” he said.
Also present at the event were Foreign Minister Datuk Seri Dr Zambry Abdul Kadir, Deputy Investment, Trade and Industry Minister Liew Chin Tong and Institute of Strategic and International Studies chairman Prof Dr Mohd Faiz Abdullah.
Read more here.
Japan leads Quad naval exercise
By Kirsty Needham (amended)
Japan, Australia, India and the United States are holding the Malabar navy exercise off the coast of Sydney, Australia. This is the first time the war games previously held in the Indian Ocean have taken place in Australia.
Japanese and Indian navy vessels stopped in Pacific Island countries Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea on the way to Sydney, highlighting the strategic importance of the region at a time of friction between China and the United States.
Vice Admiral Karl Thomas, Commander of the U.S. Navy's Seventh Fleet, said at a press conference on Thursday in Sydney the exercise was "not pointed toward any one country" and would improve the ability of the four forces to work with each other.
"The deterrence that our four nations provide as we operate together as a Quad is a foundation for all the other nations operating in this region," Thomas said.
"Oceania, the island nations that are just northeast of Australia...all of our nations now are focusing on those countries," he added.
Indian Navy Vice Admiral Dinesh Tripathi said there had been large changes in the world since the United States and India held the first Malabar Exercise in 1992 at the end of the Cold War.
When Australia participated for the first time in 2007, it "sent some signals around the world", he said.
Australia dropped out of the so-called Quad in 2008 after protests from China over its participation in Malabar. The Quad was revived and Australia rejoined Malabar in 2020, although China continues to criticise the grouping as an attempt to contain it.
"The Pacific is very important to us," said Australian fleet commander, Rear Admiral Christopher Smith.
Ships from the four nations will be joined by Australian F-35 fighter jets, as well as P-8 surveillance aircraft and submarines.
"The underwater battle space is seen to be the front line in terms of competition and potential future conflicts", Smith said.
Malabar is being held off the east coast of Australia, instead of the west coast which faces the Indian Ocean, because ships were nearby after the larger Talisman Sabre exercise involving 13 nations which closed last week, he said.
Read more here.
Preparing universities for AUKUS
By Brendan Walker-Munro (amended)
AUKUS has focused on its first pillar, which may see Australia join the ‘nuclear sub club,’ but less attention has been devoted to the information-sharing, industry ties and advanced technologies that make up AUKUS Pillar 2.
Pillar 2 technologies will include undersea robotics, quantum computing, advanced cybersecurity and electronic warfare capabilities, hypersonic weapons and mechanisms for defending against hypersonic weapons.
Higher education institutions have expressed concern about how Australia will build the skills these technologies require. Some experts suggest that nearly 200 PhD-qualified experts will be needed to support the SSNs alone. The Pillar 2 list of technologies will likely require a similar number, given that Australia lacks the sovereign capability to design and develop almost all of them.
Australia doesn’t have a robust pipeline of candidates ready to study Pillar 2 technologies. It probably can’t even supply enough graduates to support Pillar 1. So where will Australia find these students? Most likely from overseas.
This can lead to bizarre standoffs, like the case of doctoral student Li Jianjun. In 2020, the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation cancelled his student visa for association with an alleged Chinese plot based on a WeChat messages that allegedly formed the basis for his visa cancellation. Defence was stripped of responsibility for conducting the highest level of clearances—known as ‘positive vetting’—which was transferred to ASIO.
The publication of information and research about certain dual-use and military technologies requires government licensing under the Defence Trade Controls Act, but if a research project contains US military technology—which is one focus of AUKUS—the additional US control requirements are particularly onerous and come with the possibility of US criminal sanction if breached. As it stands, these rules significantly burden those researching this type of technology. After all, the imposition of security credentials and embedding of military staff in universities are things we criticise Australia’s autocratic adversaries for.
AUKUS is about more than just submarines. It’s a program designed to accelerate Australia’s technological development. That is likely to pose major challenges to this country, which doesn’t have sufficient robustness in its national security laws and policies to properly deal with them. Without a comprehensive strategy for this, Australia will be far from be ready when, and if, its new submarines ever arrive.
Read more here.
Like Ukraine, US is arming Taiwan
President Biden recently announced the provision of $345 million of military aid to Taiwan using drawdown authority passed by Congress last December. Although this does not represent a change in overall U.S. policy, it does represent a major change in U.S. practice for providing arms and implies a closer military relationship. Previously all weapons were provided through sales, not through a drawdown of U.S. stockpiles.
On July 28, the Biden administration announced that it was sending Taiwan $345 million of military aid. Details are few, but the equipment reportedly includes “man-portable air defense systems, or MANPADS, intelligence and surveillance capabilities, firearms and missiles.” The package could include services such as training and education.
This is the first slice of a $1 billion authorization for such aid, though the White House has made no mention yet of any subsequent packages and on top of the sale of $440 million worth of weapons to Taipei, approved by the US in June. China protested the move at the time as “creating tensions and undermining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait,”according to Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning.
The lack of detail is unusual. Announcements of aid to Ukraine specify types—and sometimes amounts—of equipment, even though Ukraine is at war and has a great need for operational security. Details are likely withheld on the Taiwan package because it is a highly sensitive issue for China and there is a U.S. desire to keep this effort lower profile.
The Biden administration’s changing of how the United States provides military aid to Taiwan is significant in three ways. First, Section 5505 of the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) gave the president authority for “drawdown of defense articles from the stocks of the Department of Defense, defense services of the Department of Defense, and military education and training.” Providing aid directly opens the possibility of more such aid in the future, not constrained by Taiwan’s relatively modest defense budget and not subject to the lengthy reviews that the TRA requires. Notably, the NDAA also provided $2 billion in loans per year for five years, and $100 million for stockpiling equipment on Taiwan, but nothing has happened with those provisions yet. The 2023 NDAA did not include any money for Taiwan to buy equipment although it had been discussed. Stockpiling of U.S. equipment on Taiwan would be significant if it occurs. These will be topics for future commentaries.
Second, because the equipment comes from existing stocks, it should arrive in Taiwan quickly. It does not have to go through the foreign military sales process, and Congress does not need to approve it. Congress already gave the president the transfer authority.
Finally, the transfer represents an element of economic self-interest that is not present in an arms transfer. The slow pace of foreign military sales takes many years to complete with $19 billion in potential sales in the pipeline, with some items dating back to 2016.
The presidential drawdown authority is a powerful tool. Although the authority (technically, section 506 (a) (1) of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961) has been around since the 1960s, the amount was limited to $100 million a year (the legal cap unless superseded). Further, the equipment was truly excess and, generally, obsolete.
The war in Ukraine changed that. Through July 2023, the United States has provided $23 billion of drawdown aid to Ukraine in 43 packages. Not only has the amount been substantial, but the equipment and munitions provided are the same that front-line U.S. forces use. That sparked a recognition that this authority was a good mechanism for rapidly improving Taiwan’s military capabilities.
Not surprisingly, China protested, stating that the action would turn Taiwan into a “powder keg.” Beijing views U.S. military aid to Taiwan as more significant than direct commercial sales of equipment. Beijing’s perceptions of this action will be colored by its deep distrust of U.S. policy on Taiwan and fears that the United States is seeking to “use Taiwan to contain China.” This January, for example, Chinese media cited U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and a U.S. Navy destroyer transit of the Taiwan Strait as a rationale for engaging in combat drills around the island.