Australian Auxiliary Power
AUKUS, increasingly seen as a dud deal, though an expensive one, with a $368 billion price tag, stands as the clearest example of the cognitive dissonance besetting the Australian body politic.
Does Australia really want to be the “tip of the spear”, projecting Western power?
By John Queripel
Nov 8, 2024
AUKUS, increasingly seen as a dud deal, though an expensive one, with a $368 billion price tag, stands as the clearest example of the cognitive dissonance besetting the Australian body politic.
To have cognitive dissonance is hold ideas and thoughts incongruent with the surrounding reality. It need hardly be said that such is not healthy.
The Afro-Carribbean psychiatrist and political philosopher, Frantz Fannon surmised, ‘Sometimes people hold a core belief that is very strong. When they are presented with evidence that works against that belief, the new evidence cannot be accepted. It would create a feeling that is extremely uncomfortable, called cognitive dissonance. And because it is so important to protect the core belief, they will rationalise, ignore and even deny anything that doesn’t fit in with the core belief.’
When a nation holds such a dissociative disorder it can be catastrophic.
Australia seems however, to represent a clear case of such. Situated in Asia, economically the fastest growing place in the world, Australian leadership predominantly still likes to think of itself as being an island sitting, not near Asia, but rather somewhere in the Atlantic, between Europe and North America.
This delusion causes Australian leadership to neglect that global economic growth already is, but will increasingly be, concentrated in Asia, rather than to that world to which they hearken. Three of the world’s four largest economies will soon be Asian, China, India and Indonesia, with only the U.S. being outside the region. Further, rates of economic growth across Asia, currently 5-7% p.a. (at 5% an economy doubles in size in just 14 years) dwarf those of the West.
This cognitive dissonance, fostered by the nation’s political and intelligence class, is lapped up by a docile media, who in turn propagate it to the populace as a whole.
Dissociative disorder, left untreated, can degenerate into a dangerous type of schizophrenic condition, wherein contact with reality becomes progressively lost, in a disastrous descent into a world of fears, suspicions, and eventually paranoia.
AUKUS, increasingly being seen as a dud deal, though an expensive one, with a $368 billion price tag (and sure to rise), stands as the clearest example of the cognitive dissonance besetting the Australian body politic. Not only is the premise of AUKUS utterly flawed, so also is its planning.
AUKUS is premised around the idea that Australia, threatened by a rising China, must massively build its defence capabilities, both by its own expenditure, and by drawing ever closer to its traditional allies, the U.S. in particular. Such assumed premise ignores China not exhibiting any inclination for war, its last being a brief incursion in Vietnam in 1979, and that even if suddenly it developed a war-like bent, China’s target would hardly likely be Australia. Why would a nation invade its trade partner, a partnership which for both nations is highly beneficial? China gets what it needs from Australia through trade and commerce, a much more successful, and less risky and costly, policy than war.
Further cognitive dissonance is exhibited in that, even if something like an attempted invasion were to happen, the AUKUS submarines, probably just two of them at sea at any one time to defend some 36,000 kilometres of coastline, would hardly represent the optimum defence strategy for Australia. Clearly the opportunity cost foregone, of the 20 or so conventional submarines, which could have been purchased for the same price, a better deal for Australia’s defence, represents a further retreat from reality.
All this assumes another piece of illogicality which assumes that the Chinese want to sink ships, primarily their own, conducting trade with Australia, in materials and goods which China wants and needs! There is a case of cognitive dissonance par-excellence.
Enough for the premise of AUKUS being at odds with reality. That same delusion extends also to its planning. Increasingly expert opinion accepts that we will never get the submarines. The U.S., not able to produce sufficient Virginia class submarines for its own needs, is hardly likely to off-load some to Australia, while the other AUKUS partner the U.K.’s shipyards are bogged down with constructing their current Dreadnought SSN program, never mind developing the AUKUS Class submarine. In the meantime Australia, after walking away (at cost) from the French contract, will be left without any credible submarine capacity for some 20 years.
Even if these submarines were to magically manifest, the Australian Navy, with no experience of operating SSNs, would be left to navigate their way around operating, not one, but two distinct types. That could be quite an ask, again touching on unreality.
The Singaporean former diplomat and globally recognised geo-political analyst, Kishore Mahbubani has said of Australia, ‘it can be a bridge between the East and the West in the Asian Century – or the tip of the spear projecting Western power into Asia.’ Former Prime Minister, Paul Keating has challenged Australia to find its security ‘in’ Asia rather than ‘from’ Asia.
Perhaps Australia could allow such understanding to bring some reality to its delusion. Recovery from cognitive dissonance can be difficult, and highly confronting, but is always necessary. One lives in hope, perhaps distant, for some voices of logical coherence to be heeded.
https://johnmenadue.com/does-australia-really-want-to-be-the-tip-of-the-spear-projecting-western-power/
Wednesday 6 November 2024
Trump victory makes AUKUS a danger to Australia
Grassroots anti-AUKUS campaign, Labor Against War, has called on the federal Labor government to withdraw Australia from the AUKUS military pact.
With a second Trump presidency all but assured as of Wednesday evening, Australia's commitment to AUKUS and its nuclear-powered war-fighting plans has become even further removed from the interests of the Australian people.
"It is completely untenable for Australia to continue in lock-step with a militarised US government led by an unstable President," said Labor Against War national convenor, Marcus Strom.
"Being part of a heavily integrated military alliance with a Trump presidency is dangerous, expensive and counter to the interests of the Australian people."
Defence Minister Richard Marles on Tuesday said that AUKUS is secure, no matter who won this week's US Presidential election.
"That is just an admission from our government that AUKUS is mad, bad and dangerous enough that even Donald Trump supports it," Mr Strom said.
"The Albanese government needs to use this inflection point to remove Australians from harm's way, exit AUKUS and the war planning of an increasing unstable United States."
Mr Strom said: "Given the Albanese government has said it made secret political undertakings to the US in August to continue with AUKUS, it is vital those provisions be made public now, so the Australian public can judge their wisdom or otherwise.
"Paul Keating is spot on when he says the membership abhors AUKUS. We indeed do not expect these policies from a Labor government," Mr Strom said.
"We will be writing to every ALP candidate ahead of the federal election seeking to make clear their views on AUKUS and our stance in any war between the US and China”.
