China-Australia Mutual View Poll
The ninth round of the annual China-Australia Prime Ministers' meeting will be held in Canberra on 17 June, which is the highlight of Chinese Premier Li Qiang's visit to Australia.
The Global Times Institute released the results of the China-Australia Mutual View Poll! Nearly 80% of Australian respondents: harmonious and friendly China-Australia relations are important for their country's development
Li Meng Xie Wenting (Global Times)
Editor's Note: The ninth round of the annual China-Australia Prime Ministers' meeting will be held in Canberra on 17 June, which is the highlight of Chinese Premier Li Qiang's visit to Australia. Chinese Ambassador to Australia Xiao Qian said that China-Australia relations, through thick and thin, have always remained vigorous and resilient, and the most important experience is adherence to mutual respect and mutual benefit and win-win situation.
Recently, the Global Times Research Institute and the Centre for Australian Studies at Beijing Foreign Studies University ("BAFSU") conducted a public opinion survey on over 2,200 people in China and Australia on the theme of China-Australia relations. This survey found that as China-Australia relations stabilise, the two countries' publics' favourable feelings towards each other's countries are also picking up. People in both countries believe that the economies of China and Australia are highly complementary, each with its own strengths, and with broad prospects for cooperation. Although some data show that some Australian people are anxious about China, nearly 80% of them still believe that a harmonious and friendly relationship between China and Australia is important for the future development of their country.
People's favourable feelings towards each other's countries stabilise and rebound
Since 2020, the Global Times Research Institute and Beiwai Australia Research Institute have been co-operating to conduct an annual opinion survey on China-Australia relations, and this is the fourth year (2020, 2021, 2022 and 2024). The survey was conducted online for the first time, targeting the Australian public at the same time. From May 26 to June 5, a total of 1,200 valid samples were collected from China, weighted according to the structure of Internet users in the 53rd Statistical Report on Internet Development in China, while 1,075 valid samples were collected from Australia, weighted according to the latest (21 March 2024) population data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
In order to capture the attitudes of the two populations towards each other's country in general, this survey uses a 0-100 scale for conventional favourability ratings. The survey shows that, in line with the trend of improving bilateral relations, the average of Chinese people's favourable feelings towards Australia in 2024 has increased to 69.2 marks, higher than the scores in the previous three years. Meanwhile, Australian people's favourable feelings towards China are also stabilising. The survey shows that the average score of Australian respondents' favourability towards China is 40.9, which is higher than that of the poll conducted by the Lowy Institute for International Policy (Lowy Poll) in Australia in the past two years. It is worth noting that the Loy poll itself shows a trend of significant decline in 2019, stabilisation in 2022, and stabilisation or increase from 2022 to 2024.
According to the observation of the Global Times' special correspondent in Australia, after 2018, the former Australian government, under the guidance of then Prime Minister Morrison, followed the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy, deliberately demonised, politicised, and ideologised normal economic, trade, and investment relations between China and Australia, and transmitted antagonistic sentiments at the national level to the private sector, creating a certain degree of negative impressions of China among the Australian public. The Australian Labour government has been in office since 2022, and has been in office since then. Since coming to power in 2022, the Australian Labor government has adopted a "stabilisation" policy towards China and pushed forward the development of Australia-China relations in a pragmatic direction, which has led to a rise in Australian people's goodwill towards China.
Nearly two-thirds of Australians agree that China plays an irreplaceable role in Australia's economic development.
The resource endowment and economic structure of China and Australia determine that their economies are highly complementary, and the prospect of co-operation is promising. According to the survey, 79.9 per cent of Chinese respondents said they were "very supportive" or "quite supportive" of strengthening economic cooperation between China and Australia, while 63 per cent of Australian respondents said they were "very supportive" or "quite supportive" of strengthening economic cooperation between China and Australia. The support rate of respondents is 63.5 per cent. It is worth noting that in Australia, nearly 2/3 (64.7%) of respondents agree (including "strongly agree", "quite agree" and "somewhat agree") that "China has a positive role in Australia's economic development that cannot be replaced by other countries."
Data show that in 2023, the bilateral trade in goods between China and Australia increased by 4.1 per cent over the previous year, and China has remained Australia's top trading partner, export market and source of imports for 15 consecutive years. Chen Hong, director of the Centre for Australian Studies at East China Normal University, analysed to the Global Times reporter that Australia's exports of minerals, agricultural and animal husbandry products and other products to China have met China's economic development and people's living needs; and China's inexpensive and high-quality industrial products, such as machinery, automobiles and household appliances, have also lowered the Australian public's living expenses and corporate purchasing costs in the face of Australia's stagnant economic growth and price hikes. These have brought tangible benefits to each other's people.
Shandong University Professor Yu Laser told reporters that China is Australia's largest source of trade surpluses, trade surpluses with China is also an important tool for Australia to balance international trade, last year, Australia has nearly 80 per cent of trade surpluses from the trade with China. China is also the largest importer of mining commodities and an important source of investment in Australia's pillar industry, which involves the employment of millions of people.
According to this survey, people in both countries think that the other country is worth learning from the other in many aspects, for example, Chinese respondents think that Australia's performance in "tourism", "climate change and environmental protection", "social welfare", "higher education", "public health and healthcare", "high technology", "foreign investment/business environment", "foreign investment/business environment", "public health and healthcare", "high technology" and "foreign investment/business environment", etc. Tertiary education", "Public health and healthcare", "High-tech", "Foreign investment/business environment", "Agricultural technology", "Environmental protection", "Environmental protection", and so on. For example, Chinese respondents believe that Australia is worthy of learning from other countries in areas such as "tourism", "climate change and environmental protection", "social welfare", "agricultural technology and seeds" and "new energy". Australian respondents recognise China's strengths in areas such as "high technology", "infrastructure development" and "digital economy".
Yu said the data shows that China and Australia have their own strengths and different civilisations should learn from each other. As China opens up more, especially opening up measures such as 72/144-hour visa-free transit to dozens of countries, including Australia, it is convenient for Australian people to come to China, and they spread what they have seen and heard back to their home countries, which plays an important role in the people's correct understanding of China, and this also shows the importance of strengthening exchanges.
Top five areas of co-operation between China and Australia unanimous
When asked "In which of the following areas are you more optimistic about the prospects for future co-operation between China and Australia", there was a striking convergence of responses, with Chinese respondents more optimistic than Australians. The top five areas of future co-operation between the two countries were international trade, climate change and environmental protection, cross-border tourism, energy, and high-tech industry and technology, with international trade coming in at the top of the list.
The two emerging areas of cooperation, new energy and climate change, both receive high levels of support from China and Australia. The proportion of Chinese and Australian respondents who "strongly support" or "relatively support" the strengthening of cooperation between the two countries in the field of new energy is 77.2 per cent and 64.2 per cent respectively, while the support rate for cooperation between the two countries in addressing climate change is 77.6 per cent and 65.3 per cent in China and Australia respectively. In recent years, the Global Times' special correspondents in Australia have also seen more and more Chinese new energy vehicles and 4S shops on the streets of Australia's major cities.
In terms of humanistic exchanges, the survey data shows that 78.8 per cent of Chinese respondents are "very supportive" or "quite supportive" of China-Australia humanistic exchanges and co-operation, while more than half (50.5 per cent) of Australian respondents are supportive as well. Specifically, more than 80% of Chinese respondents are willing to travel to Australia or travel to Australia again, and nearly one-third (31.5%) of Australians want to "travel to China" to learn more about China.
However, it is worth noting that the proportion of Chinese respondents willing to go or go back to Australia to study is 16.7 per cent, which is significantly lower than the willingness to travel (83.3 per cent), even lower than the willingness to work (30.7 per cent), and slightly higher than the willingness to settle down or migrate (11.5 per cent). Liu Qing, vice president of the China Institute of International Studies, told the Global Times that although Australia, as a study destination, has unique natural geographic and cultural advantages, its education market has been affected by factors such as the suppression of scientific and technological cooperation and frequent changes in the policies of student visas and graduate work visas, which make Chinese students feel worried when applying.
More than half of Australian respondents believe the US "is" or "may be" an important factor constraining China-Australia friendship
The Global Times reporter noted that in this survey, respondents from the two countries reflected different mindsets on international affairs. Chinese people are more confident and open-minded, both in terms of their favourability and their willingness to co-operate with foreign countries. Chinese respondents are more likely to view Australia as an economic partner, with 67.3 per cent holding this view. In addition, more than 70% (72.9%) of Chinese respondents agreed that Australia is a "middle power". In contrast, in Australia, the number of respondents who think China is more of a "security threat" (47.7 per cent) or even a "competitor" (13.7 per cent) to Australia is still in the minority, while those who choose "economic partner" (13.7 per cent) are still in the minority. "People accounted for 38.6 per cent of Australian respondents.
At the same time, when asked, "Do you think the United States is a major constraint on the establishment of friendly relations between Australia and China?", more than half (55.7 per cent) of the Australian respondents chose either "yes" or "probably yes". ". In addition, 53.6 per cent of Australian respondents believed that Australia "can maintain good relations with both China and the United States".
Liu Qing said that the Chinese people tend to regard Australia as an economic partner, but some people in Australia regard China as an economic partner, but at the same time, they are also worried about the "security threat" that China may bring, which shows their anxiety and strategic distrust, which stems from the conflict and dilemma between Australia's geopolitical and economic considerations, which in turn manifests itself in the wavering of Australia's policy towards China. This in turn manifests itself in Australia's wavering policy towards China. Australia's foreign strategy is influenced by the United States, and if the United States perceives China as a "security threat", then Australian public opinion and public sentiment may also be affected. For its part, China has never viewed Australia as a threat, and there are differences in security perceptions between the two sides.
In an interview with the Global Times, Australian historian John Quiripel, a columnist for the Australian current affairs and public policy website Pearls and Thrills, said the idea that China is seen as a "security threat" to Australia is illogical, but many Australians have been misled because of the scaremongering by the former government. The idea that China is seen as a "security threat" to Australia is illogical, but because of the previous government's scaremongering, many Australians have been misled, and it will take a lot of work to reverse this mistrust. The visit by the Chinese premier is a clear indication of China's desire to improve relations with Australia, and I think it will help the Australian people realise that there is a discrepancy between the message about China conveyed by the previous government and by many politicians, the Australian intelligence agencies and the mainstream media, and the reality of the situation," he said.
"The restoration of China-Australia relations has not been easy, and both sides should treasure this achievement"
This survey shows that people in both countries have high hopes for the future development of China-Australia relations. More than 80 per cent (88.7 per cent) of Chinese respondents and more than 60 per cent (64.9 per cent) of Australian respondents hoped that the relationship between the two countries would "become closer and friendlier" or "remain unchanged". In addition, nearly 80 per cent of respondents in Australia and 89.4 per cent in China believe that a harmonious and friendly China-Australia relationship is "very important" or "important" to the future development of their countries. Meanwhile, both Chinese and Australian respondents believe that the improvement of the relationship between the two countries will play a "very large" or "relatively large" role in maintaining the stability and security of the Asia-Pacific region, with 77.7 per cent and 55.7 per cent of the respondents in China and Australia, respectively, holding this view.
For example, this survey shows that 69.4 per cent of Chinese and 53.1 per cent of Australian respondents "strongly support" or "fairly support" the two countries to carry out foreign aid programmes together in the Pacific and Asian regions. Polls conducted by the University of Technology Sydney over the past four years have also shown that 70 per cent of Australian respondents consistently believe that it would be beneficial for Australia to "cooperate with China on regional issues (such as the eradication of malaria in the Pacific)".
Queripel told the Global Times that he was "very pleasantly surprised" by the figures. He said, "China is a major power in the Asia-Pacific region, which is recognised by many countries in the region, and cooperation is the trend." He added that many Australians tend to feel closer to their "kindred spirits" from Europe and North America, but this is slowly changing as Australia's population becomes more diverse. Australia needs to move away from stereotypes and assert its independence more based on its own interests.
China and Australia, as important countries in the Asia-Pacific region, have the responsibility to jointly maintain regional stability and development, Liu Qing analysed to the Global Times. If the relationship between the two countries is tense, it will have a negative impact on regional stability and development, and the general public has a deep understanding of this. Chen Hong emphasised that in the past two years, the Chinese public has attached great importance to China-Australia relations, which is mainly due to the positive grasp of Australia's policy towards China. The current recovery of China-Australia relations is hard-won, and both sides should cherish this achievement.
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Diplomatic thaw and Australian mistrust
By Elena Collinson (University of Technology Sydney UTS)
Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s visit to Australia this week speaks to continuing efforts by both Beijing and Canberra to maintain a working relationship. But while political tensions have thawed since the trough in relations between 2016 and early 2022, Australian public opinion on China remains generally negative.
The results of the newly-released UTS:ACRI/BIDA Poll 2024 by the Australia-China Relations Institute and the Centre for Business Intelligence & Data Analytics at the University of Technology Sydney reveal just how deep Australians’ mistrust of China continues to be.
Now in its fourth year, the poll surveyed 2,015 Australian adults across all states and territories on their views on various aspects of the Australia-China relationship, including overall views on the bilateral relationship, political communication, security, the triangular Australia-US-China relationship, trade and investment, society, university and research, relations with Southeast Asian nations and Pacific Island nations, and global and regional cooperation.
Seventy-one percent of Australians say that China is a security threat to Australia. This is not surprising: Australia’s recent experience with China’s campaign of economic coercion and ‘wolf warrior’ diplomacy can hardly be expected to be forgotten, even as Beijing’s punitive tariffs on Australian exports are gradually released and dialogue has resumed at the leadership level.
A growing number of Australians believe that either the United States or China will force the country to choose between close relations with Washington or Beijing, but they are relatively evenly split on which of the great powers will force the issue, with 52 percent stating that such a choice will be forced by China and 47 percent nominating the US Another Trump presidency is deemed likely to render that dilemma more acute, with just over two-thirds of Australians (67 percent) saying that the Australian government’s balancing of its relationships with China and the US will be made more difficult if Donald Trump returns to the White House early next year.
That half of those polled believe a conflict with China is a ‘serious possibility’ in the next three years serves as testament to how deeply rooted the national anxiety about China is.
Such a sentiment is unlikely to dissipate as countries like Australia, and others, continue to wrestle with the nature of China’s military power and its strategic intentions. There is a perception, though, that China’s regional influence is slipping. Fifty-five percent of Australians say that China has more influence than the United States in Australia’s regional neighborhood, which, while still relatively high, reflects a steady decrease in agreement with this view over the last four years, down from a high of 65 percent in 2021.
Although one-third of Australians (33 percent) believe the bilateral relationship may improve somewhat over coming years, more generally Australians continue to adopt a guarded stance toward relations with Beijing. They are still content to reap the benefits of the economic relationship and cultivate business ties – though even faith in these dimensions is diminishing. Nearly three-quarters of those polled see Australia as too economically reliant on China and the nexus between the relationship and underlying Australian economic prosperity shows mild signs of strain. This year, 54 percent of Australians said that without close economic engagement with China, Australia would not be as prosperous as it currently is, down nine points from a high of 63 percent in 2021.
Australians are also unsupportive of the Australian government’s decision to allow Chinese-owned company Landbridge’s lease of the Port of Darwin to continue. Only 26 percent of Australians said that the Australian government was right not to cancel or vary the 99-year lease, and just over six in 10 Australians (62 percent) said the Australian government should force Landbridge to sell the port back to the government.
Overall, Australians remain strongly wary of and concerned by Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s more assertive foreign policy, particularly in the areas of foreign interference, espionage, and the use of social media and communications platforms such as TikTok and WeChat. About two-thirds of Australians identified espionage and foreign interference by China as a major problem, and six in 10 Australians (59 percent) support a nationwide ban on TikTok and WeChat. A majority (68 percent) continue to want sanctions on Chinese officials and entities involved in human rights violations.
Half of those polled support higher defense spending, even if that means budget cuts in other portfolios. Support for AUKUS – the alliance linking Australia, the US, and the United Kingdom – is inching up even as the Australia-China relationship is viewed as a net positive for regional stability and as support for a containment strategy slips.
And the number of those who believe Canberra should remain neutral in any military contingency over Taiwan in which the US is militarily engaged fell to 43 percent, down six points from 49 percent last year. Washington policymakers will be keenly watching that number now and into the future.
The poll does not necessarily award high marks to the governing Labor Party for its policy of ‘stabilisation’ of relations with China, though it does register relatively strong support for the two countries discussing their differences via traditional diplomacy, not by picking up the megaphone.
The gap that opened up in 2023 between support for the Australian Labor Party and support for the Liberal/National coalition as the best placed to handle Australia’s China policy seems to be closing this year. Forty percent of Australians nominated the Australian Labor Party as the political party best placed to handle Australia’s China policy, down from 49 percent in 2023. Thirty-four percent said the Liberal/National coalition is best placed to handle Australia’s China policy, up from 29 percent last year. This perhaps indicates that the public wants a stronger government response, at least in some instances.
The public may well be registering that when it comes to the Albanese government’s formula for the relationship – ‘cooperate where we can, disagree where we must’ – it is hearing much more the former than the latter from its political leaders.
Note: This article appeared in The Diplomat on June 12 2024.
Elena Collinson is head of analysis at the Australia-China Relations Institute, University of Technology Sydney (UTS:ACRI).
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