UPDATE: At this week’s ALP national conference, delegates will vote to delete the words “including AUKUS” from party documents.
Diplomatically Biden’s absence will constitute a humiliation for President Jokowi as the host.
Biden launched another technology battle front with China by signing an executive order to block and regulate US outbound investments directed toward Chinese high-tech companies.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's four-day visit to three Southeast Asian countries has given new momentum to the strategic relations between China and ASEAN.
Guam is set to gain as many as 20 new missile sites packed with surface-to-air interceptors, radars, and more as part of a massive defensive upgrade and become the most densely militarised locality on Earth.
AUKUS debate looms for ruling Labor
By James Robertson (amended)
At this week’s ALP national conference, delegates will vote on a proposal to remove an expression of support for the AUKUS security pact in Labor’s platform. Some 400 party members will attend the conference, which will be in Brisbane and run from Thursday to Saturday.
One of two motions expected to be put to the conference stops short of rebuking AUKUS but would instead amend the party’s draft platform on defence by removing an explicit endorsement.
“Our self-reliant defence policy will be enhanced by strong bilateral and multilateral defence relationships, including AUKUS,” the platform currently reads.
The proposed amendment would delete the words “including AUKUS”.
Under the deal, Australia will host nuclear-powered submarines from America and the UK.
Five federal electorate councils have passed motions either expressing reservations about AUKUS or calling for it to be reviewed or delayed, according to a tally kept by Labor Against War, a party activist group. A spokesman for the group, Marcus Strom, said the conference motion was a significant step, noting earlier reports that it would not be on the agenda.
“Forcing AUKUS to be debated is a victory for the rank and file,” he said. “The first of many, we expect, as we campaign against it.” Members of the Labor Left will comprise a majority of delegates. But they are not expected to vote as a unified bloc on either defence policy or a vote to elect party executive members.
Supporters of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Foreign Minister Penny Wong, both of the Left, are not expected to back the AUKUS amendment. It will be brought by NSW MP Anthony D’Adam, from a grouping once known as the “soft” Left and historically a rival to Mr Albanese’s support base.
Defence Minister Richard Marles and Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy held a briefing for party members on AUKUS with Mr Marles describing AUKUS as a “difficult call” but said it had been the right decision.
AUKUS also includes a second phase for sharing advanced defence technology.
US representatives are pushing for export controls to be eased so Australia can access these technologies more quickly, such as quantum computing and artificial intelligence. In October, Mr Albanese will be received at a state dinner in Washington.
Read more here.
Biden no-show at Jakarta ASEAN summit
By Kornelius Purba (amended)
Check the list of Indonesian ambassadors to the United States and the duration of their tenure since President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo came to power in October 2014. Then you may understand why US President Joe Biden, according to the media reports, is likely to give the ASEAN Summit in Jakarta next month a miss.
Diplomatically Biden’s absence will constitute a humiliation for President Jokowi as the host. Foreign Minister Retno LP Marsudi can still console President Jokowi because he has at least two chances this year to meet with Biden in person when the two leaders attend the Group of 20 summit in New Delhi next month and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in San Francisco in November, which Biden will host.
The US President’s no-show in Jakarta only signals that Indonesia is no longer a top priority of the US administration, which may perceive Jakarta as leaning too much to Washington’s chief competitor Beijing.
Reuters said Biden’s failure to visit Jakarta would raise questions about the US commitment to a region that is vital in its efforts to push back against China's expanding influence.
Unlike his predecessors, Jokowi has shifted the direction of Indonesia's traditional priorities from the US. Since he took office, President Jokowi has withdrawn his ambassadors to Washington DC three times, of these two could only work for nine months and three months, respectively, before they were promoted to cabinet positions. The withdrawal often left the Indonesian Embassy in Washington, DC without an ambassador for long periods.
While skipping Indonesia, Biden plans to visit Vietnam after the G20 summit. Reuters reported Biden told a fundraiser in Maine on July 28 that he got a call from the "head of Vietnam" who "desperately wants to meet with me when I go to the G20."
It is hard for Indonesia to accept the US reason for skipping such a crucial multilateral meeting in Jakarta, while leaders of China, Japan, India, Australia, South Korea and other Western countries will attend.
Jokowi did not pay much attention to Indonesia-US relations for more than four years when he assumed power. He let Ambassador Budi Bowoleksono hold the post for five years. Mahendra Siregar replaced Budi and served from Jan. 7, 2019. The ambassadorial post in Washington was vacant for nearly 11 months until Jokowi swore in Muhammad Lutfi as the new envoy on Sept. 14, 2020. But his term lasted only three months. The President left the Indonesian Embassy in DC without an ambassador for 17 months from December 2021 until July 2023, when Jokowi named then Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) chairman Rosan the Indonesian envoy to the US.
With Rosan back to Jakarta, the Indonesian Embassy in Washington is without an envoy once again. Reports have it that former tourism and creative economy minister Wishnutama Kusubandio is tipped to fill the vacant ambassadorial post.
Hopefully, even if President Jokowi is offended by President Biden's absence, the former will not retaliate by skipping the APEC summit in November. Biden's decision not to visit Indonesia for the ASEAN summit perhaps is the price Jokowi must pay for neglecting the world's largest economy.
Anything can happen between now and the first week of September. I am sure Minister Retno will do her best to persuade Washington to change its mind, so that Biden can come to Jakarta to reunite with ASEAN leaders.
Read more here.
Biden says no to open markets
By Wen Sheng (amended)
US President Joe Biden launched another technology battle front with China by signing an executive order on Wednesday that will block and regulate American outbound investments directed toward Chinese high-tech companies. The order covers advanced semiconductor chips, micro-electronics, quantum computing systems and artificial intelligence, with the purpose aimed at stifling China's economic growth.
The order fully illustrates the bare-knuckled attempt by the Biden administration to squeeze and stymie China's high-tech sector development, after witnessing China's meteoric advances in many high-tech lines in the past decade, particularly in ultrafast mobile broadband connections and applications, quantum communications, space explorations, high-end robotics and AI research and innovation.
It is known to the world that the US government's assault on Chinese high-tech enterprises is unrelenting in order to sustain its technology supremacy and global hegemony. Biden's National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan put it in black and white, saying the US has adopted an approach called "small yard, high fence" to thwart China's modernization drive.
Intel CEO Patrick Gelsinger, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, and Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon have warned that if the US government continues to control the exports of semiconductor chips to China, the world's largest market, will inevitably harm the US dominance in the high-tech sector.
The fundamental economic interests of the Netherlands, Japan and South Korea will also be impaired as their companies are losing China's huge market. The anti-globalisation and economic fragmentation spearheaded by the US' "decoupling" or "de-risking" is eating away at globalisation and leading to a divided world.
Blinded by their ideological bias against China, Biden administration officials have abandoned conventional economic theories by creating a narrative that globalisation and efficiency "are not good" and should give way to "well-protected jobs at home" through "decoupling.” The US government is nervous about China's growing industrial competency and turning its back on open markets, free trade and globalisation. In essence, politicians in Washington fear they will lose out to China in free and open competition.
The persisting inflation imperiling the developed economies in the past two years is the result of Biden administration's anti-globalization gambit, because trade and investment protectionism inevitably leads to lower efficiency and higher prices, which has been vindicated by the elevated inflation and economic downturns in the US, the UK, Germany, Japan, South Korea and other developed economies. If these countries refuse to change course and readjust their misaligned policies, more economic pain could be lurking around the corner.
Read more here.
China’s FM Wang Yi tours ASEAN
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's four-day visit to three Southeast Asian countries highlighted China's strong commitment to solidarity and friendship with ASEAN, Kin Phea, director-general of the International Relations Institute of Cambodia, said.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's four-day visit to three Southeast Asian countries has given new momentum to the strategic relations between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Cambodian experts said on Sunday.
Wang, also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, concluded his three Southeast Asian-nation tours on Sunday, which had taken him to Singapore, Malaysia, and Cambodia.
During his trip, he met with Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong in Singapore, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim in Malaysia, King Norodom Sihamoni, outgoing Prime Minister Samdech Techo Hun Sen as well as incoming Prime Minister Hun Manet in Cambodia.
Kin Phea, director-general of the International Relations Institute of Cambodia, a think-tank under the Royal Academy of Cambodia, said Wang's visit highlighted China's strong commitments to solidarity and friendship with ASEAN.
"For Cambodia, his visit charts together the way forward for bilateral cooperation in building a high-quality, high-level, and high-standard Cambodia-China community with a shared future in the new era," he told Xinhua.
Wang's visit to Cambodia has also further deepened the comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership, the ironclad friendship, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) cooperation, and the diamond hexagon cooperation framework between the two countries, he added.
"His visit plays an important role in promoting China-Cambodia cooperation, enhancing mutual understanding and strategic trust, and deepening the building of a community with a shared future between the two countries," Phea said.
The expert added that the visit also expressed China's full support for ASEAN and its unwavering commitment to working with ASEAN to promote multilateralism, win-win cooperation, inclusive growth, and sustainable development.
"A stable China-ASEAN relationship is crucial to ensure peace, security, stability, development, and prosperity in the whole region," he said.
Seun Sam, a policy analyst of the Royal Academy of Cambodia, said Wang's visit to Cambodia was essential to deepen the two countries' strategic partnership.
"His visit serves as a testament to the enduring friendship and strategic partnership between Cambodia and China," he told Xinhua.
"It also demonstrates China's continued efforts to strengthen its ties with ASEAN, particularly within the framework of the BRI," he added.
Sam said the visit also demonstrated China's dedication to fostering strong relationships with its neighbors and promoting a shared vision of peace, development, and cooperation.
Thong Mengdavid, a research fellow at Phnom Penh-based independent think tank Asian Vision Institute, said Wang's trip represented China's vigorous and strategic engagement and collaboration with ASEAN, aiming at strengthening bilateral ties with those countries.
Mengdavid said China is the forerunner of multilateralism and a key promoter of peace in the region and in the world at large.
Read more here.
Fortress Guam
By Joseph Trevithick (amended)
Sites all over the island and permanent airspace closures will be part of turning Guam into a fortress unlike any other. Guam is set to gain as many as 20 new air defense sites packed with surface-to-air interceptors, radars, and more as part of a massive defensive upgrade plan. Overall, the island looks set to become the most densely protected place anywhere on the planet.
The island, which is a U.S. territory, is strategically located in the western Pacific and is home to major Air Force, Navy, and now Marine Corps bases. These would be among the top of the list of priority targets for an opponent during any future high-end conflict in the region, such as one against China.
A total of 20 separate sites are currently under consideration to host surface-to-air interceptors, radars, and other elements of the planned Enhanced Integrated Air and Missile Defense (EIAMD) system.
"The missile defense system would be able to defend Guam a full 360 degrees around the entirety of the island. The 360-degree capability would be achieved by distributing/placing system components at multiple locations around the island," a block of text accompanying the candidate site map explains. "Site selection is evolving and additional sites may be considered."
A version of the Aegis Ashore system tailored to Guam's unique geography and other requirements will be at the core of EIAMD. This is expected to look significantly different from U.S. Aegis Ashore sites currently in Romania and Poland, the latter of which is not yet operational, but is expected to be later this year. The U.S. military has a dedicated Aegis Ashore test site in Hawaii.
As originally designed, Aegis Ashore directly ported over various components, including the AN/SPY-1 radar and Mk 41 Vertical Launch System (VLS), from the Flight IIA Arleigh Burke class destroyer into a land-based configuration. The primary interceptors for the system have long been variants of the SM-3, including the Block IIA variant designed to be able to engage intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) during the mid-course portion of their flight outside of the Earth's atmosphere.
Thanks to the multi-purpose nature of the Mk 41 VLS, additional missiles, such as variants of the multi-purpose SM-6 and the now-in-development Glide Phase Interceptor (GPI), which is being designed to engage incoming hypersonic boost-glide vehicles, could be integrated into the system in the future.
The exact configuration of Guam's Aegis Ashore system remains to be seen. However, the U.S. Missile Defense Agency has made clear in the past that it will be distributed to a far greater extent than its predecessors. There have been discussions in the past about installing certain components in hardened underground facilities or putting them on road-mobile ground platforms.
What is known now is that the higher-end tier of the EIAMD will also include at least four AN/TPY-6 radars. This design was previously known as the Homeland Defense Radar-Guam and leverages technology from Lockheed Martin's Long Range Discrimination Radar (LRDR) now in place in Alaska.
The U.S. Army is planning to provide Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-ballistic missile systems, Patriot surface-to-air missile systems, Typhon Mid-Range Capability systems (which can fire SM-6 multi-purpose missiles, as well as Tomahawk cruise missiles), and Enduring Shield Indirect Fire Protection Systems, to provide lower layers of air and missile defense coverage.
THAAD, Patriot, and Typhons with SM-6 would offer options for engaging various types of ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as fixed-wing aircraft and other aerial threats. Enduring Shield, which will at least initially fire AIM-9X Sidewinder missiles, is designed to offer additional protection against cruise missiles, drones, and even artillery rockets. The War Zone has repeatedly highlighted the very real threat posed now by drones, including very low-end commercial types that can be readily weaponized, or used for surveillance or other malign purposes, pose to U.S. forces abroad and at home, including on Guam.
An Army THAAD battery has already been forward-deployed on Guam since 2013. The Army also deployed Iron Dome systems, comparable in form and function to Enduring Shield, as part of a test in 2021.
The Army's contribution to the new EIAMD on Guam will also include at least three Lower Tier Air and Missile Defense Sensor (LTAMDS) radars, as well as multiple smaller Sentinel types, distributed around the island.
A command and control architecture that includes elements of the Navy's Aegis Combat System and the Army's Integrated Battle Command System (IBCS) will help tie all this together, allowing for a great deal of flexibility and general situational awareness. The networks will also help Guam's defenders choose different interceptors and associated sensors, as well as fuze data to produce higher fidelity tracking and targeting data, to best respond to different types of incoming threats and do so faster and with greater accuracy.
Those networks will be able to feed in information from offboard sources, as well. This includes existing and future space-based sensing assets. Work is already progressing on the development of a new hypersonic weapon-focused tracking constellation that is expected to eventually include dozens of individual satellites.
The radar/airspace map shows three prominent radar arcs emanating from an area near Ritidian Point at the northern end of Guam, Naval Base Guam's (NBG) Barrigada site in the middle of the island, and a location within the Naval Munitions Site (NMS) in the south. It is possible these could reflect sites under consideration for some of the AN/TPY-6 or LTMADS radars.
A fourth and much larger arc is also shown projecting from Ritidian Point, which is now under the jurisdiction of the Marine Corps' new Camp Blaz on Guam, which could point that being the planned location for the core of the island's future Aegis Ashore system. There is also the possibility that this could reflect the existing AN/TPY-2 radar associated with the Army's THAAD battery that is already in place at the northern end of the island.
There are 11 other radar arcs marked on the map, which would seem to reflect the various expected lower-tier components of the complete EIAMDS.
Officials have said in the past that they want at least some parts of the system to be in operation by 2026. Navy Rear Adm. Doug Williams, the acting director of MDA, said that there is a plan in place now to conduct an initial live-fire test, which would be of an SM-3 Block IIA missile from the Aegis Ashore site, on Guam in December 2024.
The U.S. military will also need to secure sufficient funding across multiple years to pay for the various new air and missile defense systems for the island. The Missile Defense Agency and the Army together have requested nearly $1.44 billion just in the 2024 Fiscal Year to support this work, according to Defense News.
Read more here.